Tool
Path simulation
Same goal, several routes: put the steps in and compare the outcome distributions.
What it solves
- Several plausible paths to one goal and no idea which is steadier
- Wanting to see the difference between steady-first and fast-first
- Needing to sequence a plan
How to use it
- 1. Write the goal and the candidate paths
- 2. Estimate payoff, probability and duration per step
- 3. Compare distributions and pick a route
What you will see
- Expected outcome and spread per path
- Which step is the real fork
- Where extra preparation pays off most
- How it compares with what actually happened
FAQ
Does it plan my life for me?
No. It only computes the paths and numbers you provide, showing which is steadier and where the risk sits.
Where do the numbers come from?
From your estimates, plus your existing answers and records if you keep them.
How many stages can it handle?
Three to five are typical; more stages amplify estimation error and the tool will say so.